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EU anxiety over Chinese "trade diversion" proves misguided

Source: Xinhua

Editor: huaxia

2025-07-05 13:36:15

A drone photo taken on June 16, 2025 shows a view of the container terminal of Tangshan Port in Tangshan, north China's Hebei Province. (Photo by Liu Mancang/Xinhua)

BEIJING, July 5 (Xinhua) -- The European Union (EU) is once again casting a wary eye eastward, as alarmist claims of a new "China shock" -- fueled by fears that Chinese exports deflected by U.S. tariffs are now flooding Europe -- spark renewed calls for protectionist measures against a so-called "trade diversion."

However, this narrative crumbles under scrutiny. It is rooted not in economic reality but in political anxiety, and risks undermining one of the world's most vital economic relationships.

The European Commission recently flagged a surge in Chinese imports across several categories, including textiles, chemicals, metal products and machinery, in its first report on monitoring trade diversion.

For some, it appears to confirm that Europe is becoming the fallback destination for Chinese goods barred from the U.S. market. But a closer look shatters that assumption.

"The Commission's findings do not provide compelling evidence that European markets have to date been overrun by redirected Chinese products," Global Trade Alert, a trade policy monitoring initiative, said in an analysis, noting that only two of the 55 product categories singled out by the commission -- kitchen appliances and LED lamps -- overlap with Chinese exports to Europe that previously targeted the United States.

Trade data reinforces this view. From January to May 2025, China's exports to the EU accounted for 14.7 percent of its total outbound trade, only slightly higher than 14.6 percent from the same period in 2024, and even below the 2023 figure of 15.4 percent.

If China were truly weaponizing exports to circumvent U.S. tariffs, the data would paint a starkly different picture. In reality, the EU's alarm over trade diversion is grossly overstated.

Even if some redirection is occurring to a degree, the risks to EU industry remain minimal and, in most sectors, fall comfortably within the bounds of normal market fluctuations.

Brussels-based think tank Bruegel highlighted in an earlier analysis that China and the EU possess distinctly different comparative advantages. It stated, "Most Chinese exports to the United States are not in direct competition to European production or are not of threatening magnitude."

The beggar-thy-neighbor approach has never been China's method of choice. Instead, China tackles external shocks through bold reforms.

For instance, it has restructured its economic engine to drive growth increasingly from domestic demand. With vast potential unlocked in its 1.4-billion-strong market, Chinese goods can now find buyers much more readily at home.

Rather than fixating on the direction of Chinese containers, the EU would do better to focus on the direction of Chinese policy, and the opportunities it presents.

Many European businesses are already recognizing the immense value in China's commitment to expanding domestic demand and pursuing high-standard opening up.

In April, the China International Consumer Products Expo featured dazzling displays of vehicles, cosmetics and homeware from across Europe, including France and Italy, which were met with enthusiasm from Chinese buyers, a reminder that engagement, not retrenchment, yields results.

As China and the EU mark the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations this year, it is worth remembering that decades of cooperation have made the two sides vital trade partners.

Currently, the shifting trade dynamics between China and the EU reflect a broader rebalancing of the global economy, rather than a slide into zero-sum rivalry.

Cost-effective goods from China would continue to help Europe ease inflation and sustain consumer demand, while China's technological edge in clean energy could contribute to the EU's green transition. Enhanced industrial cooperation between the two sides could further bolster the global ambitions of European businesses.

As the world today stands at a critical juncture, a healthy and stable China-EU relationship is not merely a bilateral asset but a beacon of hope for the entire globe. By upholding multilateralism, defending fairness and justice, and resisting unilateral bullying, China and Europe can together meet global challenges, anchor globalization amid turbulent times, and foster a more equitable and inclusive world.

The EU must not allow baseless fears of trade diversion to escalate into self-defeating protectionism, an easier path that, in the long run, threatens to erode the very competitiveness it aims to protect. 

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